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Cognitive Biases Gambler's Fallacy
Due for a Win
A fair coin will flip, one toss at a time, sometimes landing the same way several times in a row. Each time it pauses, call the next flip.
1Watch the streak of identical flips build up.
2Predict the next flip: Heads or Tails.
3Notice when you bet against the streak because it feels "due".
The concept· Described by Laplace, 1814; studied by Tversky & Kahneman
Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is believing that past independent random events change the odds of the next one — that a run of one outcome makes the opposite outcome "due".
It drains roulette players, mis-times "this stock has fallen five days, it must bounce" trades, and warps how we read randomness everywhere.